Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91% of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past six tournaments.

Only five double-digit seeds advanced over the past two days: two No. 10s, one No. 11 and two No. 12s. That ties the fewest since 2017.

Instead of trying to predict which relatively mediocre team will put together a string of upset or coin-flip wins, it’s best to go round-by-round with your betting. That’s a more reliable way to try to make money betting on sports.